房地产上市公司Logistic预警模型研究

A Study on the Model of Warning System Against Listed Corporate of Real Estate

目前,从整个房地产市场来看,随着房贷新政的作用延续,开发商的融资渠道压缩。投资者纷纷立场,购房者购房趋于理性。开发商受资金链压力,建立预警管理体系可提升企业的反应能力。因此,基于我国房地产行业背景,建立针对房地产企业的财务预警系统,非常具有现实意义。论文以我国61家上市房地产公司为研究样本,其中主要包含A股企业以及少部分的B股企业。并根据是否为ST公司分为正常和危机公司两类,基于主成分分析法和Logistic回归分析,利用SPSS经济统计软件,对各上市公司的财务指标数据进行分析来构造财务预警模型,最后再对构建的预警模型进行回判和最优度拟合检验,估计模型预警效果。

Over look the current real estate market as a whole, the enterprise will face more pressure which are the depression of the financing channels as the action of the New Deal role. The buyers tend to purchase rationally. Above all,building a early warning system can enhance the responsibility of the enterprises to alleviate the pressure of fund chain. As a result, it is useful to establish the financial early warning systems based on the background of China＇s real estate industry. The study samples of the thesis are the listed real estate companies which contain A shares and a few B shares. They are divided into two categories of normal and crisis companies according to whether the ST companies; then establish the early warning model based on the principal component analysis and Logistic regression analysis, using the SPSS statistical software; At last, do the optimal degree of fit test to check the effect of the early warning model.