我国银行卡市场双边性检验及其政策启示

Two-Sidedness Test of China's Payment Card Market and Its Policy Implications

本文通过对交叉网络外部性的测度来检验我国银行卡产业的双边市场特征，并结合对消费者持卡支付影响因素的识别，提出我国银行卡产业发展的相关政策建议。对1995～2005年发卡量与POS机数量时间序列的格兰杰检验表明，我国银行卡产业存在单向交叉网络外部性，接受卡支付的商户数变化会引起持卡用户数的变化；而基于15家商业银行的面板数据模型分析显示，持卡消费端相对于商户端的交叉网络外部性系数为0．876；进一步的数据模型分析发现，消费者持卡支付还与经济发展水平、金融市场发展程度、城镇居民消费水平等因素有关。

In this paper, we study the two-sidedness of China＇s payment card industry through empirically testing its cross-network externalities, then identify the determinants of payment cards usage, and lastly come up with some policy suggestions for the further development of China＇s payment card industry. By conducting Granger Causality test, it is found that there exists one-way cross-network externality in China＇s payment card industry, which means it is merchant side change that determines cardholder side change and the estimated elasticity is 0.876. panel data fixed effect regression further shows that economic development of service sectors, banking and financial market development, national consumption level, market structure of payment card industry all have significant impacts on the growth of payment card market.