人民币实际汇率变动的出口贸易效应研究

Research on the Impact of RMB Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Export in China

基于跨期最优化贸易模型,通过引入外部不确定性,分析了实际汇率对出口贸易的影响。研究表明:如果企业生产规模报酬递减,则实际汇率变动率增大将导致企业出口量及利润增加。运用中国1985年-2008年间相关数据进行实证检验,发现人民币实际汇率与出口呈正向关系,马歇尔-勒纳假说在中国成立。

Based on the inter-temporal optimal trade model, this paper analyzes the impact of real ex- change rate on export trade by introducing external uncertainty. It is found that increase of real exchange change rate will lead to the increase in export and profit if returns to scale decrease. By empirical analysis based on data from year 1985 to 2008 in China, we find the positive relationship between real exchange rate of RMB and export, and this positive relationship shows that Marshall-Lener condition is valid in China.