国际金融危机与中国模式的突围

THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND CHINA'S MODE OF SHAKING OFF THE CRISIS

对美国和中国的经济形势作了基本判断和分析。美联储和美国政府试图通过资产价格的再膨胀拉动经济增长,帮助银行免予倒闭,但是,这一轮资产价格膨胀对实体经济和老百姓没有产生相应效果。美国的经济刺激只是救一个体系,但不能救全国。欧洲的失业率在金融海啸之后,走上一个陡峭的爬升过程,与美国的失业率几乎在同样的过程之中,这导致欧洲与美国短期内的消费难以提升。预计美国经济下一波增长的牛市会出现在2024年,而这之间会是一个消费冰河期。美国经济现在不是真正好转,而是处在比较紧急的依靠呼吸机维持运转的状态。指出探讨中国模式必须探讨那些看似正常、看似习以为常的经济学理论中的最核心的概念到底合理不合理。认为世界主权货币的来临不可避免,问题是由谁来主导这个过程,是由别人主导,还是由中国来主导。提出中国模式3.0的论点,试图找出一种符合中国经济发展的模式。认为中国的发展还有15年的战略机遇期,就是从现在到2024年。

The paper first makes a basic judgments and analysis of China＇ s economic situation. Federal Reserve and the U. S. government are trying to stimulate economic growth by re-inflating asset prices so as to help the banks exempt from collapse. However the re - inflating of asset prices produces no corresponding effect on entity economy and common people. What America is doing can only save a system not the country. The unemployment rate in Europe has been on the rise after the financial tsunami as is the case in America, leading to insufficient consumption there. The next wave of growth in the U. S. economy is expected to appear in the 2024. It＇ s necessary for China to explore the Chinese model of development, deciding whether or not the core of the present seemingly normal and reasonable economic theory is actually reasonable. The paper advances the Chinese model 3.0 and prospects for a 15 - year period of strategic opportunity.