心理因素对投资决策行为的影响分析——基于ARCH类模型的实证研究

Analysis of the Impact of Psychological Factor upon Investment Decision-making Behavior——An Empirical Research based on ARCH Model

心理因素影响投资者的投资决策行为,以往对于股市的涨跌更多的从政策层面寻找利好或利空因素去诠释,实际上从行为经济学角度来讲,投资者心理上的微妙变化,也会影响他们的投资决策行为。股市涨跌不仅受国家政策等基本面的利空或利好因素影响,也会受到投资者的心理因素影响。通过使用ARCH类模型来考察和分析股票市场星期一与星期五收益率波动性的特征,分析投资者在这两个日期上心理的变化,我们发现不同的心理状态影响着投资者的投资决策行为。

Psychological factor works on the investment decision-making behavior. The rise and fall of share prices was explained from national policies before. Actually, the delicate change of investors＇ psychology affects their investment decision-making be- havior from the point of view of behavior economics. The rise and fall of share prices is impacted not only by the factors of making profit or losing profit of national policies, but by investors＇ psychology sa well.This paper applies ARCH Model to studying the characteristics of the yield fluctuation in the stock market from Monday to Friday and to analyzing what changes take place in in- vestors＇ mind, reaching a result that different psychological states have an impact on the investors＇ investment decision-making be- havior.