关于通胀预期形成模式及其管理对策的研究

Research on forming pattern of inflation expectation and its management strategy

该文在对通胀预期三种形成方式进行比较分析的基础上,认为不完全理性预期是较为符合实际的预期形成方式;而通货膨胀持久性、经济主体获得信息并进行有效分析的能力、中央银行信誉是影响不完全理性预期的主要因素。中央银行应在货币政策目标上赋予币值稳定更高的权重,并通过进一步加强与公众的沟通,尽量向公众提供能使其形成合理预期所需的信息量等方式来管理通货膨胀预期。

This paper compares three types of inflation expectations, and believes that the imperfect rational prediction is more in accordance with the actual formation of inflation expectation. The main factors influencing imperfect rational expectation include duration of the inflation, the ability for economic entities to acquire and effectively analyze information, and the central bank＇s reputation. The central bank should put more weight on currency stability in its monetary policy targets, strengthen communication with the public, and provide enough information so that the public can form a reasonable expectation, in order to better manage the inflation expectation.