金价波动的原因、前景与中国选择

Causes and prospects of gold price fluctuation and China's choice

金融危机以来,黄金一路高走。该文从布雷顿森林崩溃后国际货币体系与黄金价格走势的关系分析中,认为国际货币体系的不确定性是黄金狂涨的宏观背景,而实物投资需求增加和开采商去套期保值化、美元汇率走低和通货膨胀预期、发达国家惜售黄金储备而新兴国家增持黄金储备以及投机气氛甚浓等,是支持黄金上涨的具体原因。在此基础上,进一步分析认为黄金价格的总体趋势不会改变,但短期调整仍会继续。相应地,中国应有长期增加黄金储备的战略,但在具体时机的选择上需要谨慎。

Gold price has been increasing since the financial crisis. This paper analyzes the relationship between the trends of gold price and the international monetary system after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, and believes that the uncertainty of the international monetary system is the overall cause of the booming gold price. The paper cites detailed reasons for the price rise, including increasing gold investment demands, gold producers＇ de-hedging, a weak US dollar, inflation fears, developed countries＇ reluctance to sell gold reserves while emerging countries continue to buy gold reserves, and increased risk appetites. It concludes that the general trend of gold price will remain unchanged, but the short-term adjustment will continue. Accordingly, China＇s strategy should be to increase its gold reserves in the long term, but the timing should be carefully decided.