孔梁水库诱发地震预测研究

Study of the Induced Earthquake of Kongliang Reservoir

对孔梁水库所在的巫溪地区地壳深部结构、地球物理场和构造地震特征进行了研究,认为地壳中上部强烈推覆挤压构造的应力集中,是该地区构造地震发生的动力来源,该构造也控制着水库诱发地震的分布和强度。综合多种预测方法成果并结合库区地震地质条件进行分析,认为孔梁水库诱发地震的最大震级约为4级,震中烈度为Ⅵ度,不会超出原设计水平,因而对水工建筑物没有破坏性影响,但对山区农村危房可能会造成一定的破坏。应加强地震观测和防震抗震措施的落实及宣传工作,把可能的地震损失降到最低程度,发挥水库的综合效益。

The deep geological structure, geophysical and seismic record, and karst hydrological characteristics of Kongliang reservoir are discussed in the paper. The stress concentration of the compression nappe structure in the upper crust is the dynamic source of the natural earthquake. The nappe structure also controls the reservoir in- duced earthquake＇s distribution and strength. Synthesizing various estimation method results and by the help of seismo-geological condition analysis, we get the result that the magnitude of the biggest earthquake in Kongliang reservoir is about 4, the intensity is Ⅵ.