人口抚养比对经济增长的影响分析——基于陕西省1978—2007年的实证分析

The Influence of the Population Burden Ratio on Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis of Shaanxi Province from 1978—2007

从人口抚养比角度分析对经济增长的影响是一个新的视角。文章运用动态计量方法研究了陕西省人口抚养比、固定资产投资、劳动力投入对经济增长水平的影响。研究发现,陕西省人口抚养比对经济增长有较强的负面影响,并且有滞后效应;劳动力投入和固定资产投入长期对经济增长有正面的影响,陕西省经济增长具有自促进能力,因此,经济政策的制定应该考虑人口抚养比的负面影响。

This article using JJ cointegration test and other methods studied the influence of Shaanxi Province population burden ratio, the investment in the fixed assets and the labor force investment on the economic growth . The result showed that the population burden ratio of Shaanxi Province having strong negative influence on the economic growth, and has the lagging effect; the labor force investment and the fixed capital invest- ment have positive impact on the economy in the long way. The Shaanxi Province economic growth has self- promotion ability. It is necessary to take the negative effect on the economic growth from the population burden ratio.