应用证据权重法估测林火发生的可能性——以呼中林区为例

Using Weights of Evidence to Estimate the Probability of Forest Fire Occurrence:A Case Study in Huzhong Area of the Daxing’an Mountains

以大兴安岭呼中林区为研究区,综合考虑影响林火发生的自然和人为因素,应用证据权重法,从众多的影响因素中,选取能反映地形(坡向、坡位指数)、气象(年均温、年降水量)、可燃物(1h,10h时滞地表死可燃物的载量、1h时滞地表死可燃物含水量)和人类活动(距道路的距离)等因素,分析林火发生的可能性。结果表明:呼中林区林火的发生存在一定的不确定性,但研究结果对该地区森林的管理仍具有很好的指导作用,可以为森林火险区划、森林可燃物优先处理区的选择提供科学依据。应加强森林可燃物的基础研究,尤其是森林可燃物载量的时空分布规律的探讨,提高空间数据的准确性,减少不确定性,从而更好地对林火的发生作出科学的预测。

Understanding the probability of fire occurrence at different spatial locations has important significance for forest fire prevention and management. Many factors and their complicated interactions may affect the occurrence of fire. These make the predicting of fire occurrence very difficult. Fire occurrence prediction has become hot topics in the field of forest fire research. This study was conducted in Huzhong area of the Daxing＇an Mountains. By using weights of evidence,we chose the natural and anthropogenic factors that comprehensively affect forest fire occurrence,including aspect,topographic position,annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,1 hour dead fuel loads,10 hour dead fuel load,1 hour dead fuel water content and distance to road. With these chosen factors as evidences,the fire occurrence probability map was generated. Our results showed that fire occurrence in Huzhong area had uncertainty to some extent. But our results still have significant implications for forest management. They may provide scientific basis for zoning forest fire risk and choosing priority areas for fuel treatment. Future research should be focused on forest fuels,especially on the spatial and temporal distribution of forest fuel load,to improve the accuracy of forest fuel data and to predict scientifically the occurrence of forest fire.