中国政府支出的动态效应实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Effects of Government Spending in China

运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型方法,研究政府支出对总产量、社会投资、居民消费等所产生的动态冲击效应。主要结论是:政府支出对总产量产生正效应,政府支出与社会投资、居民消费具有互补效应。分析认为,政府支出的正外部性在政府支出的传导机制中起到重要作用,促使政府产生正效应。并得出政策建议,现阶段的政府支出应多投向社会保障等民生方面。

The paper analyzes dynamic effects of government spending shock on output, investment and consumption by Structure Vector Autoregression（SVAR）. Result shows that there are positive effects of government spending on output, government spending crowding in social investment and consumption. It gets conclusions that positive externality of government spending plays an important role in transmission mechanism of government spending effect, which may arises positive effects of government spending shock on output, investment and consumption. Finally, it supports some suggestion that government put more spending on livelihood project, e.g. social security.