我国就业结构与外资的Geweke因果关系分解检验

The Geweke Decomposition Test of the Relationship between Foreign Investment and Employment Structure in China

文章运用Geweke因果关系分解检验和协整理论,研究了1983-2006年间我国就业结构变动与实际利用外资间的长期和即时因果关系,以及外资对各产业内部就业比重变动的作用。结果表明:外资对我国就业结构变动具有单向因果关系,而就业结构变动对外资的影响不显著;其中,外资对第一产业就业比重存在负向影响,对二、三产业就业比重则具有正向影响;此外,第三产业的就业比重变动和外资间存在即时因果关系,二者的变动具有一定程度的同步性。

This paper uses the Geweke decomposition test and cointegration theory to empirically study the long-run and instantaneous causal relation between employment structure and foreign investment, and to investigate the effect of foreign investment on the employment structure within each industry. The results are as following ： There is a unidirectional causality running from foreign investment to the adjustment of employment structure; foreign investment has a positive impact on the employment proportion of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry while it has a negative impact on the employment proportion of the primary industry. Moreover, there is an instantaneous causality between foreign investment and the employment proportion of the tertiary industry.