大清河北支山区地表径流锐减原因分析与计算

Reason Analysis and Calculation of Surface Runoff Rapid Decrease in the Northern Branch of Daqinghe River

利用有序聚类分析法对大清河北支山区径流系列进行检验,1979年是地表径流系列过程发生显著突变点。用F检验法对突变点前后系列进行一致性检验,两个时段的径流系列差异显著。由此认为1979年以后径流量受人类活动影响显著。通过对影响径流量的人类活动因素和降水量因素进行分析计算,人类活动对径流量的影响范围在25%～40%之间;降水量减少对径流量的影响范围在25%～50%之间。由此可认为,该流域径流量减少的主要原因是降水量减少。通过对地表径流锐减的原因分析与计算,为今后制定水资源开发利用方案提供科学依据。

Applying the ordered clustering algorithms to check up the runoff in the Northern Branch of Daqinghe River, we have found the year 1979 was a year for runoff rapid change. A coherence check by F-test on the change showed that the noticeable difference between two periods, from which we inferred after 1979, runoff was heavily influenced by human activities. Through analyzing the factors of human activities and rainfall volume which influenced runoff, we got the influencing range of human on runoff was 25%-40%; rainfall decrease on runoff was 25%- 50%. Thus the main reason of the basin runoff decrease was rainfall reduction, which could provide scientific assistance for water resources utilization and development.