多元视角下中美贸易失衡成因的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Causes of Sino-American Trade Imbalance in a Multilevel Perspective

中美贸易失衡问题是两国近年来双边贸易争端的核心。造成两国贸易失衡的因素是多方面的,汇率、国际分工、整体经济失衡及FDI等因素都在不同程度影响两国贸易差额。通过回归分析发现,汇率水平、中国近年来持续快速的经济增长以及大量的FDI流入对中美贸易失衡都有影响。调整两国贸易差额需要多种手段,单纯依靠人民币升值很难解决中美贸易失衡问题。

Sino-American trade imbalance is the core issue of the bilateral trade strife between China and the United States in recent years. There are multi-dimenslonal factors such as exchange rate, international labor division, overall economic imbalance, FDI, etc. , which have influenced the trade differences between the two cou.ntries at a various degree. Through a regression analysis, the causes of Sino-American trade imbalance are found to be multilevel, especially the state of exchange rate, the sustained rapid econom- ic growth in China in recent years and the influx of large volume of FDI. Accordingly, various means must be adopted to adjust the trade difference between the two countries while it is hard to obtain Sino-American trade balance merely by means of raising the value of RMB.