石羊河流域生态系统的气候变化脆弱性评估

Assessment on Climate Change Vulnerability of Ecosystems in the Shiyang River Basin

选取石羊河流域生态系统作为研究对象,简要分析影响其生态系统气候变化脆弱性的主要因子。在此基础上,选取4类共13项指标,构建了生态系统脆弱性评价指标体系。通过层次分析法确定了指标权重,最后采用综合指标分析方法,对石羊河流域生态系统气候脆弱性现状进行了定量评价;结合气候变化情景,定量分析了未来该流域的脆弱性变化趋势,并给出减缓不利影响的对策和建议。

It is very important to understand the sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems to climate change, especially in arid areas. In this paper, the main factors affecting the climate change vulnerability of ecosystems in the Shiyang River Basin in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province are analyzed, on which an assessment index system of ecosystem vulnerability is developed by selecting 13 indexes, the weights of the indexes are determined by using the analytic hierarchy process, and the climate change vulnerability of ecosystems and its future trend in the Shiyang River Basin are quantitatively analyzed bu using the comprehensive index analysis. The results are as follows： （1） Environment in the Shiyang River Basin is extremely vulnerable, especially in the lower reaches, where it is extremely arid, the desert steppes are dominant, the ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change, and the adaptability to climate change is quite limited ; （2） Compared with the situation at present, the climate vulnerability in 5 counties in the Shiyang River Basin will be high in 2010 but low in 2020. The enviromnent in Minqin County in the lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin will be still extremely vulnerable under the increase of both temperature and precipitation in next 50 years, however, the climate vulnerability in the Liangzhou and Gulang regions in the middle reaches of the drainage basin will be relatively low; （3） Both sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems to climate change in 5 counties in the Shiyang River Basin will be increased compared with that in 2001 under the effects of climatic factors and social and economic development; （4） Utilization of water resources in air is one of the effective measures of increasing the total volume of water resources. It is suggested to develop the water-saving and sunshine farming, ensure the ecological water consumption, control population growth, and reduce the carrying capacity of environment in the drainage basin.