能源经济环境模型研究现状与趋势评述

Review of the Status Quo and Future Development of Energy-Economy-Environment Models

能源经济环境模型是研究宏观政策影响、能源经济环境综合评价等的重要分析工具。介绍了能源经济环境模型中应用最为广泛的一般均衡(CGE)模型、技术模型及混合模型。结合文献着重分析了模型的发展趋势,包括开发综合评价模型、处理不确定性问题及技术变化内生模拟、细化重要部门等方面。最后指出应重视基本模型的能力建设,积极参与国际合作。

Energy-economy-environment model is an important analytical tool for study of the impacts of macro policies and integrated assessment of energy economic environment. An introduction is made in this paper to the widely-applied computable general equilibrium （CGE） model, technology model and hybrid model. An analysis is carried out focusing on the development tendency of the above-said models, including development of integrated assessment models, treatment of uncertainties, endogenous simulation of technological changes, and disaggregation of key sectors. It is concluded that attention should be paid to the capacity building of basic models and international exchanges should be strengthened.