我国房价的宏观经济影响因素分析——基于PLS方法的实证研究

Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Chinese Real Estate Prices——Based on the Empirical Research of Partial Least-Squares Method

我国房地产市场发展时间较短,样本数据较少,但影响我国房价的宏观经济因素众多且各因素之间存在严重的多重共线性。文章通过偏最小二乘(PLS)方法对我国房价的宏观经济影响因素进行定量分析,利用变量投影重要性指标(VIP)考察了各影响因素的重要程度,并构建房价与重要影响因素之间的预测模型。研究结果表明:土地价格、资金规模和国民财富构成当前影响我国房价变化最重要的三大因素;中长期贷款利率对我国房价变化的影响作用较弱,而货币供应量对我国房价变化的影响作用却非常突出。

Considering short development of Chinese real estate market, it is very difficult for us to obtain enough sample data. However, there exist numerous macroeconomic factors affecting Chinese real estate prices, and exists serious multicollinearity among these impact factors. In this paper, we use the partial least- squares （PLS） method to quantitatively study the macroeconomic impact factors of Chi- nese real estate prices, and utilize the index of variable importance in projection （VIP） to analyze significant level of these impact factors. Moreover, we build a forecasting model between Chinese real estate prices and these macroeeonomic impact factors. The results show that the land price, the fund size and the national wealth constitute three most important factors which influence the change of housing price in china. Furthermore, the results also show that that the medium and long - term loan interest rate has weak impact on the change of housing price, but the money supply has significant influence on the change of housing price in china.