中国M2/GDP畸高之谜的再考察——兼论当前全球金融危机的实质

The Rethinking of the Elements Pushing M2/GDP to a Abnormally High Level: the Essence of the Global Financial Crisis

以货币沉淀为角度分析M2/GDP偏高的原因,主要体现在储蓄-投资转化渠道不通畅,造成银行系统货币存量偏大;证券市场、房地产市场等资产市场资金配置效率低,货币周转速度慢;收入分配差距拉大,受边际消费递减导致高收入阶层资金储藏量大;利率、汇率机制缺乏有效弹性而导致中央银行被迫发行超额货币维系市场秩序;非组织金融规模增长,大量资金流通于正规金融体系之外,可能导致市场内金融体系的"脱媒"现象。当前全球金融危机爆发的根源就在于货币沉淀到不动产领域,导致货币紧缩。

From the viewpoint of monetary sediment, the issue analyzes the reasons for the high M2/GDP. The reasons are as following： the currency deposit in bank system is big in that the conversion channel of saving to investment is block; the assets markets, like the stock market and the real estate market, have an inefficient fund allocation and a low liquidity; the gap of income distribution is widening, and the marginal consumption decreasing rule causes a larger funds reserve of the high income group; interest rate system and exchange rate system are inelastic, what causes the central bank maintains market order by issuing excess currency by force; a great lot of funds are circulating outside of formal financial system, which may lead to a ＂disintermediation＂ phenomenon. The deep-seated trigger to the global financial crisis is the monetary tightening causing by currency sediment to the real estate field.