山东省太阳辐射及其光热生产潜力评估

Evaluation on Solar Radiation Resource and Photosynthetic and Thermal Potential Productivity in Shandong Province

为科学评估由于气候变化引起的光热潜力变化,根据1971-2007年山东省太阳辐射、日照及温度资料,在与前30年（1971-2000年）平均值相比较的基础上,统计分析2001年以来太阳总辐射、日照时数、光合有效辐射和光热生产潜力的变化情况,并应用Mann-Ken-dall非参数统计方法对变化趋势进行检验。结果表明：2001-2007年,山东省年总辐射比前30年平均减少72.3 MJ/m^2,标准变化量M为-1.75,整体呈下降趋势;年日照时数平均减少231.4 h,标准变化量M为-4.21,呈下降趋势;年光合有效辐射平均减少36.1 MJ/m^2,呈下降趋势;年光热生产潜力平均增加2 397.6 kg·hm^2,M为1.18,呈上升趋势;尽管总辐射有减少的趋势,但由于温度增加的比较明显（M为3.65）,且大气中CO2浓度升高,温度起主导作用,光热生产潜力仍呈增加的趋势。

For appraising scientifically the change of photosynthetic and thermal potential productivity caused by climate variation,according to data of radiation,sunshine and temperature in Shandong Province from 1971 to 2007,and based on comparison with mean of previous 30 years（1971-2000）,the variation of total solar radiation,sunshine hours,photosynthetic active radiation,photosynthetic and thermal potential productivity since 2001 were analyzed.By using Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical method,the variation trend was tested.The results showed that the annual average total radiation during last 7 years（2001-2007） in Shandong decreased 72.3 MJ/m^2,the standard variable M was-1.75,showing decreasing trend overall;the annual average duration of sunshine decreased 231.4 h,M was-4.21,showing decreasing trend;the annual average photosynthetic active radiation decreased 36.1 MJ/m^2,showing decreasing trend;the annual average photosynthetic and thermal potential productivity decreased 2 397.6 kg/hm^2,M was 1.18,showing increasing trend.Although total radiation decreased,photosynthetic and thermal potential productivity still showed increasing trend due to the temperature increased obviously（M was 3.65） as well as the concentration of CO2.