行为决策中模糊规避研究的回顾与展望

A Review and Prospect of Ambiguity Aversion in Behavioral Decision Making

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会偏好有精确概率的事件而不是从主观上判断具有相同模糊概率的事件。自从Ellsberg提出模糊规避的概念以来,模糊规避已在行为决策研究的多个领域得到广泛验证。本文梳理了近五十年来关于模糊规避的研究文献,系统分析了模糊规避的研究范式、心理机制和影响因素,同时提出了未来的研究展望。

Ambiguity aversion refers to that people prefer events with known probabilities to similar ambiguous events where the decision maker does not know the values of the probabilities. Ambiguity aversion has been well-established in the field of behavioral decision making and verified across many different domains since it was first proposed by Ellsberg. This paper sorted out the research on ambiguity aversion over live decades, systematically analyzed the research paradigm, psychological mechanism and influential factors of ambiguity aversion. Finally, the directions for future study on ambiguity aversion were suggested.