国际市场对我国价格总水平影响的实证分析——基于货币和贸易传导路径

Empirical Analysis of the International Market Impact on China's Price Level

本文选取2001年至2009年5月份的月度数据,通过货币和贸易两种路径来分析国际市场价格变动对我国价格总水平的影响。其中,货币传导路径以人民币有效汇率指数、一年期贷款利率来研究对我国价格水平的影响;贸易传导路径以CRB指数、进口商品贸易价格指数为变量分析对国内价格水平的影响。通过研究,本文的初步结论是:人民币有效汇率和一年期贷款利率的变化造成国内物价水平反方向波动,国际大宗商品价格对国内价格水平传导效应递减,时间具有滞后性。

This paper have chosen the data from 2001 to May, 2009 to analyze the impact of international market＇s price change on our country by monetary and trade path. It adopts effective exchange rate index of Renminbi, lending rate of one year, to study the influence on the country in the monetary transmission path. In the trade transmission path, this paper selects CRB index, trade price index of import goods to analyze the impact on domestic price level. Through the study, this paper concludes, the effective exchange index of Renminbi and lending rate of one year caused domestic price changing oppositely, and the transmission effecting of the international bulk commodities to the macroeconomic price decreases with time lag.