石河子气温变化趋势特点的奇异谱分析

SSA of the Special Features and Trend of Air Temperature in Shihezi

本文采用1961-2001年石河子地区的气象资料,利用奇异谱分析的方法,分析了40a来气温变化,结果表明,石河子的气温变化具有4个明显的变化周期,分别为33-34年,11-12年,8-9年,3-4年;利用噪声驱动阻尼振子模型对得到的时间周期做了初步的分析,并利用拟合函数集对石河子气温给出了对应的函数变化关系。利用该方法可以对气温的变化特征有一个明晰的物理理解,也可以为将来的气温变化趋势的预测给出一定的借鉴作用。

Based on the meteorology data in Shihezi region from 1961 to 2001, the paper analyses by SSA the change of air temperature. The results show that there are four obvious periodic changes in Shihezi region： 33 -34y, 11 - 12y, 8 - 9y, and 3 - 4y It analyses the obtained time period data by the model of damping vibration generator driven by noise. Meanwhile, varied relation of corresponding function is obtained by fitting function to get a perspicuous physical comprehension on the special features of the regional air temperature change.