中国价格贸易条件与出口商品结构的关系——基于2001-2008年季度数据的分析

Relations between China's Price Terms of Trade and Structure of Export Commodities:Based on the Quarterly Data of 2001-2008 Analysis

根据SITC将中国出口商品分为初级产品和工业制成品,并将初级产品按照用途分为食品类原料、非燃料原料和燃料,将工业制成品按照部门分为纺织服装类产品、化学产品、机械及交通运输产品、金属冶炼产品及电子产品等。利用2001—2008年的季度数据,计算各分类产品在中国出口金额中的比重,并通过实证检验,分析其对中国价格贸易条件的影响。结果表明,中国总体价格贸易条件、初级产品价格贸易条件和工业制成品价格贸易条件,均呈现恶化的趋势。其中,工业制成品出口比重上升是总体价格贸易条件恶化的主要原因,燃料出口比重上升对初级产品价格贸易条件的恶化起主要作用,纺织服装类产品出口比重下降和电子产品出口比重上升,对工业制成品价格贸易条件起改善作用。

In this paper, in accordance with the SITC, the exports of China are divided into primary products and industrial products, and primary products are further divided into food materials, non-fuel raw materials and fuels; in accordance with the export department, industrial products are divided into garments, chemicals, machinery and transportation, metal smelting, as well as electronic products. According to the quarterly data of 2001--2008, the thesis calculats China＇s exports＇s amount proportion of the classi- fied products, and tests its impact to China＇s price terms of trade through empirical test. The result shows that China＇s overall price terms of trade, primary products＇price terms of trade and industrial products＇price terms of trade are all emerging deteriorating trend. Among them, the increase of industrial products＇amount proportion in exports is the main reason for the declining of overall price terms of trade; the increase of fuel＇s amount proportion in exports plays a major role for the deterioration of primary products＇price terms of trade; the decrease of textile and apparel products＇ amount proportion and the increase of electronic products＇ amount proportion improves the industrial products＇price terms of trade.