转轨时期我国城镇不同收入群体消费行为影响因素分析——兼谈居民消费过度敏感性和不确定性

A Study on the Consumption Behavior of Different Income Rank of Urban Residents During Transitional Period——The Case of Excess Sensitivity and Uncertainty

本文首先分析了经济转轨时期我国城镇居民消费的主要影响因素,之后运用1992～2008年我国城镇居民七个不同收入组数据及面板数据模型,检验了不同收入群体消费的过度敏感程度,结果显示我国城镇居民消费存在明显的过度敏感性,且不同收入居民的消费过度敏感性不同,低收入者的消费敏感性较强,高收入者的消费敏感性较弱。在引入不确定性因素后,不同收入阶层的消费过度敏感性均有不同程度的下降,说明不确定性尤其是预期支出的不确定性是影响居民消费过度敏感性的重要原因。

The paper analyses the outstanding influence to the consumption of urban residents during transitional period. And then uses datum of Chinese urban residents of different income rank from 1992 to2008 and Panel Data model to survey the excess sensitivity on consumption of every rank. The result shows that every rank has an obvious different sensitivity. Lower income household have a stronger sensitivity and higher have a weaker sensitivity. When we add the uncertainty in the model, we find that all of the income tank＇s sensitivity decrease differently. The result shows that the uncertainty, especially the uncertainty of expected expenditure, has an important influence on the excess sensitivity of consumption.