基于BPCC模型的径流对气候波动和覆被变化的响应

BPCC model based runoff responses to climate fluctuation and land cover changes

为了研究气候波动和覆被变化对中小流域径流的影响,对BPCC分布式水文模型进行敏感参数分析。根据降雨、温度、和归一化植被指数NDVI的变化趋势计算3个影响因子单独和组合变化前后的径流深。对岷江镇江关流域1980—2003年间的计算结果表明:3种因子的综合影响使流域径流减少11.5%;各因子单独作用的贡献率分别为39.3%、45.4%和15.9%,一定变幅下的单位贡献率分别为9.4%、2.4%和12.2%;计算结果显示气候波动(气候因素)与覆被变化(人为因素)的贡献率之比约为5∶1。

The hydrological response to climate fluctuations and land use and land cover changes was quantified using a distributed hydrology model, Basic Pollution Calculation Center （BPCC）. A sensitivity analysis of the parameters related to the land cover was used to describe the change in the runoff depth relative to the precipitation, temperature and NDVI （normalized difference vegetation index）. Simulations for the Zhenjiangguan basin of the upper Minjiang River during 1980 - 2003 showed that the runoff depth decreased by 11.5% due to the combined effect of precipitation, temperature changes and vegetation cover changes. The contribution ratios of the three factors were 39.3%, 45.4% and 15.9%, and the per unit contribution ratios were 9.4% ,2.4% and 12.2%. The simulation shows that the effect of climate fluctuations （climate factors） was 5 times that of vegetation cover changes （human activities）.