世界女子链球运动发展趋势前瞻

Prospect on the Development Trend of World Women's Hammer Throw

女子链球是中国优势田径项目,为制定该运动项目未来正确的博弈决策,必须准确把握该项目的世界发展趋势。运用文献资料法、数理统计法、灰色系统预测等方法,根据世界女子链球年度排名成绩进行分析,通过预测前瞻了2009—2012年度该项目的发展态势。研究表明,当前女子链球运动处于高水平稳定期,前3名成绩有所降低预示着世界顶尖选手竞技高峰已过,但整体水平呈上升趋势;中国选手张文秀今后4年成绩继续提高,但进入世界前10名的难度较大,必须提高大赛发挥率才可能取得更好成绩。

Women＇s hammer throw is a preponderant athletic event for China. In order to make the right decision for the future of the event, the developing trend of the world women＇s hammer throw should be studied. The authors of this paper tried to predict the development status of the event for 2009-2012 by means of literature review, statistics and Gray system prediction and according to the latest performance list of world women＇s hammer throw by IAAF. The results show that women＇s hammer throw event is at a high-level developing phase at present. Although the performance of the top three athletes has descended,which indicates elite players＇ prime time is declining,the overall level shows a rising trend. It＇s also noted that the Chinese thrower, Zhang Wen-xiu＇ s achievement will be advancing in the next four years, but she is hard to reach the top ten. So she should enhance stabilization in big matches to get better results.