基于AHP法的区域经济影响定量评价——以南水北调中线陕西水源区为例

Quantitative assessment of regional economic impact based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process:With water source areas in Shaanxi Province of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example

目的定量评价大型工程对区域经济的影响,为区域经济的科学发展提供理论依据和参考。方法以南水北调中线陕西水源区为例,采用AHP法,建立递阶层次结构的区域经济影响评价指标体系,进而确定各层次的判断矩阵以及单项指标在工程经济评价中的权重。结果中线工程的实施对陕西水源区经济影响中第二产业的影响最大,权重为0.684 3;其次是第一产业,权重为0.229 7;最后是第三产业,权重为0.122 0。结论应用AHP法进行区域经济影响定量评价简单、准确,实用性强;南水北调中线工程对陕西水源区的经济发展将会产生深远影响,其中既有正面的,也有负面的,对其进行深入研究可为水源区水土保持生态补偿机制的建立和实施奠定技术基础。

Aim To evaluate quantitatively the impact factor of large-scale projects on the regional economy,and provide a theoretical basis and reference for the scientific development of the regional economy.Methods Take the water source areas in Shaanxi Province of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project for an example,by using the analytic hierarchy process,a hierarchical framework of economic indicators is established.Then the judgment matrix of each hierarchy,as well as the weight of each single economic indicator,is obtained.Results The results show that the implementation of this project affects the secondary industry of the water source areas in Shaanxi province most,with weight being 0.684 3,followed by the primary industry,with weight being 0.229 7,and the tertiary industry in sequence,with weight being 0.122 0.Conclusion Using AHP method to quantitatively assess the regional economic impact is simple,accurate,and practical;The influence on the economy of water source areas in Shaanxi province of middle route of South-to-North water diversion project is evaluated quantificationally by using AHP.The research will provided reference and basis for the establishment of ecological compensation mechanism on the water source area.