摘要
本文以能源碳排放的总量和份额为排放数量指标,以排放强度和人均排放为排放效率指标,利用聚类分析方法,对我国各省域的能源碳排放类型进行划分。结果表明,GDP标准下的经济强省大多属于"高排放"类型,其中部分省甚至属于"高排放-低效率"类别。因此,我国较大比重的GDP和人口处在相对"高排放"的发展模式下。这对于我国实现到2020年碳排放强度降低40%～45%的战略目标是一个严峻的挑战。
Taking the total amount and the share of energy carbon emission（ECE）for the quantity index, and taking the intensity and per capita of ECE as the efficiency index,this paper classifies provinces acoording to their ECE type by the cluster analysis method. The results indicate that most of developed provinces in GDP criterion belong to the high-emission type,many of which even belong to the class of high-emission and low-efficiency, which is a serious challenge for China＇s strategic aim that the carbon emission intensity will decrease by 40%-45 % in 2020.
出处
《技术经济》
2010年第3期40-45,共6页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
国家林业公益性行业科研专项经费项目(2008)"中国森林对气候变化的响应与林业适应对策研究"
关键词
能源碳排放
碳排放强度
聚类分析
排放效率
energy carbon emission
carbon emission intensity
cluster analysis
emission efficiency
