能源消费与经济增长的灰色关联度分析——基于能源结构约束的视角

Grey Relevancy Analysis on Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China:From Perspective of Energy Structure Constraint

本文基于灰色关联度理论,对我国煤炭、石油、天然气、水电等常规能源与经济增长的关联程度进行了量化。结果显示,煤炭消费依然是我国的能源消费主体,其次是石油、水电、风电、核电及天然气。这意味着目前我国能源利用的主要矛盾并不是能源的总量约束,而是能源的结构性约束。

Based on the theory of grey correlation degree, this paper measures the correlation extent between conventional energy such as coal, oil,hydropower,wind power,nuclear power, natural gas and so on, and economic growth. The results show that coal consumption is still the main body of China＇s energy consumption, followed by oil, hydropower, wind power, nuclear power and natural gas, which means that the princi- pal contradiction in China＇s energy utilization is not from the total amount of energy, but from the energy structure constraint.