外贸出口对中国经济增长影响分析

Impact Analysis of China's Exports on Economic Growth

采用理论与实证分析相结合的方法研究外贸出口对中国经济增长的影响。除分析出口总量外,还将服务贸易出口、货物贸易出口、初级产品出口、工业制品出口以及按照《联合国国际货物标准分类》得到的10个大类产品出口作为变量,分别研究其与GDP的关系。研究结果表明,出口增长能直接带动GDP的增加,并且就业、消费、投资、政府支出、进口也受其影响,从而出口间接刺激经济增长。此外,出口还通过外汇储备、规模经济、技术进步三个方面对经济增长产生影响。

This paper investigates the relationship between export and the economic growth in China, theoretically and empirically. Besides analyzing the influence of total value of export on economic growth , this paper regards trade of service, export of commodity, export of primary goods, and export of manufactured goods as variables respectively and examines their impact on GDP. In addition, according to SITC, the author has taken value of exports by category of commodities as variables too, 10 more variables totally. The results show that export growth can be directly contributing to the increase in GDP and employment, consumption, investment, government spending and imports under its influence, thus indirectly stimulate economic growth in exports. In addition, export, through foreign exchange reserves, economies of scale, technological advances, also has an impact on economic growth.