云南城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析

Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Growth of Yunnan Province

以1978——2007年云南的时间序列数据为研究对象,采用协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验等方法,对云南城市化水平与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。分析结果表明:云南城市化水平与经济增长两者之间存在长期均衡关系;经济增长是城市化水平提高的格兰杰原因;经济增长对城市化的作用要强于城市化对经济增长的影响。

The paper analyzes the relationship between urbanization and economic growth by the use of co - integration test, error correction model and Granger causality and the time - series data of Yunnan province from 1978 to 2007. The findings show that there is a long -term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization and economic growth. The economic growth is Granger cause of urbanization level - raising, and the effect of the economic growth on the urbanization is stronger than that of the urbanization on the economic growth.