中国的经济高增长与国际收支顺差何以并存——基于货币分析法的解释

Why fast growth Can Coexist with Surplus of Balance-of-payments in China:A Monetary Approach

我国经济增长、信贷扩张是经常账户顺差的Granger原因,但经常账户不是经济增长和信贷扩张的Granger原因。货币分析法较好地解释了我国经济高增长与国际收支顺差并存的现象。我国国际收支顺差主要是由于经济增长带来货币需求大增,超过了货币供给所致。经济增长通过资产需求、"两部门问题"以及人民币升值预期等渠道导致货币需求的上升,因此扩大国内信贷可能会导致国际收支顺差总量的下降;人民币升值并不能减少国际收支顺差,而应该保持基本稳定。

China＇ s economic growth and credit expansion is a Granger reason of the current account surplus, but the current account is not a Granger reason of economic growth and credit expansion The Monetary Approach to Balance- of- payments explains reasonably the phenomenon of coexisting between high economic growth in China and international payments surplus China＇ s international payments surplus was mainly due to demand for money exceeding money supply Therefore, the expansion of domestic credit may lead to a decline in the total of international payments surplus; RMB should be kept basically stable.