改革开放以来中国经济周期特征及原因的理论探索与实证分析

Theoretical Exploration and Concrete Evidence Analysis of China Economic Cycle Characteristics and Reasons since the Reform and Opening

对改革开放以来我国经济周期的特征及成因进行了理论探索和实证分析,认为改革开放后,在各种因素的作用下,我国经济周期呈现出波动性较弱、增长性和稳定性较强的特征。外部冲击是我国经济周期出现的初始原因,内部传导机制是我国经济周期具有内生性及持续性的原因。在分析外部冲击时,考察了对产出造成外部冲击的外生变量以及导致外生变量变动的实际因素。在分析内部传导机制时,利用乘数—加速数模型解释了我国经济周期的内生性及持续性,据此提出熨平经济周期的政策建议。

China＇ s economic cycle characteristics and their contributing factors since the reform and opening are theoretically explored and analyzed with concrete evidence in this article. The authors believe that after the reform and opening under the impacts of various factors, China＇ s economic cycle presents characteristics of properties of fairly weak fluctuation and of fairly strong growth and stability. Outside impact is the initial reasons of China＇ s economic cycle to appear, and inside conduction mechanism is the reason that China economic cycle possessing endogenous and sustained properties. When analyzing the outside impact, the article observes and studies the practical factors that make exogenous variables bring the outside impact and lead outside variables to change. When analyzing the inside conduction mechanism, the article explains the endogenous and sustained properties of China economic cycle using multiplier---acceleration mathematical model. According to these views a policy proposal to iron smooth the economic cycle is put forward.