基于长期或短期战略下的两期供应链合同分析

Analysis of two-period supply chain contracts based on strategies of long-term or short-term

分析了1个供应商和1个零售商组成的系统,系统成员进行两期博弈;两期不确定性需求分布和需求实现值一样,系统成员可以通过观察第1期销售量,更新第2期不确定性需求分布.研究得出:首先,在集中系统中,系统最优策略为采用长期战略模式;其次,在分散系统中,系统成员之间的博弈均衡为,当单位产品的生产成本较低时,均采用长期战略模式,当单位产品的生产成本较高时,零售商采用短期战略模式、供应商采用长期战略模式;再者,在回购系统中,系统成员收益仅受零售商的战略模式影响,而与供应商的战略模式无关;最后,采用数值模拟方法分析了分散系统中系统成员的收益.

A supply chain comprised of one supplier and one retailer is analyzed, in which the members game in two periods; each period prior demand distribution and realization of the demand are of the same distribu- tion, furthermore, in the second period demand distribution can be updated over time via the information of re- alization of sales in the first period. The research results are as follows： Firstly, in the centralized system, the best strategy of the system is to explore long-term strategy. Secondly, in the decentralized system, the best strategies of the members are to explore long-term strategies together if and only if production cost per unit is smaller than a certain value ; the composition of the retailer＇ s short-term strategy and the supplier＇ s short-term strategy exists if and only if production cost per unit is larger than a certain value. Furthermore, in the buy- back system, the system＇ s optimal decisions depend on the strategy of the retailer rather than that of the sup- plier. Lastly numerical analysis is used to analyze the profits of both members in decentralized supply chain.