我国中长期节能潜力的一般均衡分析

General Equilibrium Analysis of Mid-long Term Energy-saving Potentials in China

节能作为我国基本国策已经受到了空前的关注,然而在重化工业阶段节能工作任重道远。本文以分析我国中长期节能潜力为目的,建立了一个22部门动态CGE模型。首先本文对2002年货币单位和物理单位的能源平衡关系进行了核算;然后对粗放发展的4种情景和集约发展的3种情景下2002-2030年的经济增长和能源消费进行了数值仿真计算;根据计算结果,本文分析了产业技术升级、提高能源效率和提高物质循环利用率对GDP、能源强度和能源消费等指标的影响。研究表明,到2030年我国经济结构依然偏重,只有大幅度提高能源效率和物质循环利用率,才能在促进经济增长的同时有效地降低能源强度。

As the basic national strategy in China,energy-saving has been concerned unprecedentedly.In the heavy chemical industrial period energy-saving is a difficult task,but in could be fulfilled in the future.In order to analyze the mid-long term energy-saving potentials in China,a dynamic CGE model of 22 sectors is built.Firstly,the relationship of 2002 energy balance between monetary unit and physical unit is accounted.Four extensive development scenarios and three intensive development scenarios are set.Then the economy growth and energy consumption from 2002 to 2030 in each scenario are numerically simulated.According to the calculation results,this paper analyzes the impacts of industrial technology upgrading,energy efficiency improving,and material recycling rate improving for GDP,energy intensity,energy consumption and etc.This research shows that economy will still be mainly constituted by the heavy industry until 2030.Only by largely improving energy efficiency and material recycling rate,the government can effectively reduce the energy intensity and promote economic growth.