能源消费与经济增长协整分析:基于宏观数据的比较分析

The Energy-GDP Co-integration Analysis in China :Based on Comparative Analysis on Macro-data

在综合比较分析关于中国GDP和能源消费的各种宏观统计数据的基础上,选定以Maddison估算的以1987年不变价格衡量的GDP和以IEA估算的能源消费为分析的基础数据,通过单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果分析等分析技术发现:中国GDP和能源消费数据是一阶单整的,存在协整关系,并表现为从经济增长到能源消费的单向因果关系。而进一步的误差修正模型分析结果显示:经济增长和能源消费存在长期的均衡关系,GDP每增加1个百分点,能源消费将提高0.811个百分点;相反,能源消费增加一个百分点,GDP将提高0.194个百分点。这表明中国经济增长与能源消费之间存在密切的关系,能源消费并不是经济增长的一个强外生变量。

Based on comparative analysis on Chinese maro - data about GDP and energy consumption, this paper takes time series analysis on GDP data from Maddison and energy consumption data from IEA. And it finds that there are I（1） and co - integration between Chinese GDP and energy consumption, and GDP Granger causes energy consumption. One percent increase in GDP increases energy consumption by 0. 811 percent, while one percent increase in energy consumption increases GDP by 0. 194 percent. So, the energy - GDP nexus of China is very tight.