不确定性、学习与新技术序列投资决策

Uncertainty,learning and new technology sequential investment decision

以不同性质不确定性与其解决方式(学习)和效率对投资价值的影响为切入点,研究新技术序列投资行为背后的决策机制与路径.在现有研究基础上,引入企业内部学习的异质性特征,把技术不确定性的解决效率分解为学习能力、累积学习效应与边际学习效应3个层次进行讨论.运用实物期权方法构建包含学习效应的新技术序列投资决策模型,并得到最优决策规则,通过数值方法对不同参数进行比较静态分析,并阐述结果的经济与管理涵义.

This paper analyzes the implicit me.chanism supporting the new technology sequential investment decision from the perspective of the ways and efficiency of the resolution of different types of uncertainty embedded in the project. After comparing the relevant models, the paper introduces the learning heterogeneity in the resolving efficiency of the technical uncertainty, which is determined by learning capability, accumulated learning effect and marginal learning effect. Finally, this paper adopts the real options approach and builds a new technology sequential investment decision model in which the optimal investment rule is derived. According to the numerical solutions and comparative static analysis, the economic implications of the results are analyzed.