二元社会保障制度下农民工迁移行为及验证

The Migration Behavior and Empirical Verification of Rural Laborers under the Dual Social Security System

托达罗建立的人口流动新古典迁移模型为农业向非农业人口转化、农村向城市人口转化问题提供了一个标准的研究范式,但是这个范式没有将农村人口的流动置于当前二元社会保障制度背景之下进行分析,因而对于转型时期的中国农民工大量出现的解释存在着许多缺陷。本文通过引入农民工面临的制度歧视所带来的成本,修正了托达罗模型。调研数据的实证分析发现,当前二元社会保障制度的差异对农村人口的迁移决策行为产生了较为显著的影响,进一步验证了修正模型得出的结论。

The neoclassic migration model of labor force flowing, established by Todaro, has provided a standard paradigm of research on the shift from agriculture to non - agri culture and from rural to urban population. However, the paradigm didnl analyze the rural population flowing against the dual social security system background. Thus it has many flaws in the explanation regarding Chinese rural laborers in the reforming time. This paper revised Todaro＇s model through introducing the cost brought about by system discrimination against rural laborers. The investigation and empirical data analysis showed that the Dual Social Security System has a more remarkable influence on the rural population migration decision - making behavior, which further confirms the conclusion the revised model obtained.