陕西国际旅游收入与经济增长关系的协整分析

Cointegration Analysis of Earnings from International Tourism and the Economic Growth In Shanxi

文章基于VAR模型及其协整分析,通过Granger因果检验,对陕西1990-2007年间国际旅游收入与经济增长关系进行实证分析.结果显示,国际旅游收入与经济增长存在协整关系,并通过建立误差修正模型说明两者间存在动态均衡关系.同时,Granger因果检验表明陕西经济增长和国际旅游收入之间存在协调互动的反馈机制.

In this paper, we use the VAR, Cointegration analysis and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between the economic growth and earnings from international tourism of Shanxi from 1990 to 2007. The result shows that there is a stable positive equilibrium relationship between the economic growth and earnings from international tourism, the ECM explains the short - term dynamic relation. And the Granger causality test indicates that the economic growth and the earnings from international tourism form harmonious feed - back mechanism.