应用生命周期旋回理论预测辽河油田石油探明储量增长趋势

Application of life cycle theory to predict increasing trend of proved oil reserves in Liaohe Oilfield

翁氏生命旋回适应于对生命总量有限体系的描述和预测,石油与天然气为非再生性矿产资源,能够用翁氏生命周期旋回模型进行描述和预测,运用已探明石油储量与时间的关系进行拟合,进而对辽河油田石油探明储量增长趋势进行预测。结果表明,目前辽河油田勘探程度较高,探明储量已进入缓慢增长阶段,预测今后几年探明储量年增长在3000×104t左右。

Weng＇s Life Cycle Theory is suitable for the description and prediction of the finite system of life amount. Oil and natural gas which are nonrenewable mineral resources can be described and predicted using Weng＇ s Life Cycle Theory. Proved oil reserves＇ increasing trend is predicted and fitted using relationship between the proved oil reserves and exploration time in Liaohe Oi]field. Results show that the exploration degree in Liaohe Oilfield which has undergone a rapid growth stage is high at present and the increase of proved reserves has gone into a slow growth stage. The annual growth of proved reserves is predicted to be about 3 000×10^4t in the future several years.