我国的内需、外需与经济增长——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Domestic Demand,Foreign Demand and Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

在VAR模型的基础上,通过建立协整方程,运用格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲响应和方差分解的方法,对我国内需、外需与经济增长的关系进行了全面研究。结果表明:内需、外需与经济增长之间存在长期的协整关系;出口波动会通过影响投资、消费而放大对我国经济的负面影响,短期内,投资对经济增长的拉动作用较大,长期内,消费对我国经济增长的拉动作用最大。在此基础上,结合金融危机对我国经济运行的影响情况,提出当前宏观经济调控的政策建议。

The paper fully analyzes the relationship between domestic demand,foreign demand and economic growth,which is based on VAR model,establishing Cointegration equation and using Granger test,impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results show that the domestic demand,foreign demand and economic growth have long term equilibrium relationship;the export fluctuation will have larger impact on our economy by influencing investment and consumption;in the short term,the investment stimulates economic growth most;otherwise,in the long term,the consumption stimulates economic growth most.At last,the authors give our suggestions basing on our economic operation after this financial crisis.