我国房地产市场泡沫的成因分析

Analysis on Causes of Bubbles in Chinese Real Estate Market

利用时变现值模型分析了我国的房地产市场,在结合VAR方法计算出我国房地产的基础价值后,用WALD检验对实际价格与基础价值进行了比较,发现房地产市场存在一定的泡沫成分。利用内在泡沫和投机泡沫两种泡沫成分的性质进一步对我国的房地产市场进行了分析,最后得出的结论是:内在理性泡沫和投机泡沫都会对我国房地产市场价格造成影响,但投机泡沫的影响是主要的,也就是说,价格的动态变化对房地产市场价格的影响是主要的。

This paper uses a time-varying present value model to study the real estate market in China,and after using the VAR approach to calculate the fundamental （real）house values in China,the author uses the WALD test to compare the real house prices with the fundamental （real）house values,the author finds that there are some bubbles in Chinese market.Then the author uses sthe properties of the intrinsic bubbles and the speculative bubbles to study the real estate market in China further,and finds that the intrinsic bubbles and the speculative bubbles affect the China＇s market together,but the speculative bubbles play the more important role in determining actual house prices,in other words,the dynamic of the prices is the main factor.