能源要素价格改革对宏观经济影响的CGE分析

A Dynamic CGE Analysis of the Effect of Energy Price Reform on China's Macroeconomy

当前国内要素价格改革呼声很高,其中能源价格改革更为迫切。本文利用MCHUGE模型,研究提高能源价格对中国经济发展的影响。研究表明,提高能源价格在短期和长期均能显著降低中国能源强度,其原因在于能源价格的提高优化了中国经济产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在国内生产总值中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。但是能源价格提高对宏观经济带来了较大的负面影响,其导致的出口下降和投资需求下降分别是短期和长期国内生产总值下降的主要原因。

Based on China＇ s MCHUGE model, one of CGE model, this paper analyses the effects of raising energy price on China＇s macroeconomy. The research shows that, on one hand, raising energy price can significantly reduce China＇ s energy intensity both in the short term and in the long term. Raising energy price can improve industrial structure, decrease the proportion of secondary industry, especially the heavy industry, in GDP, and reduce total energy using in economy. On the other hand, the high energy price can decrease the amount of exports and investments in China, and results in a decline in GDP. It is a great negative impact on China＇ s macroeconomy in short term and long term.