中国物价波动与经济增长关系研究——基于城乡居民消费差距视角的分析

On the Relationship between Price Volatility and Economic Growth:In the Perspective of Urban-rural Consumption Inequality

物价波动与经济增长之间的关系是经济学传统的研究课题。本文在测量城乡居民消费差距的基础上,利用TARCH模型研究了物价波动对城乡居民消费差距的非对称影响,并从城乡居民消费差距的视角分析了物价波动对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:物价波动使得城乡居民消费差距的变化越来越小;物价波动与城乡居民消费差距之间呈负相关关系,当物价变动1%时,城乡居民消费差距反向变动0.579%;物价波动对经济增长有着负的直接影响;物价波动通过影响城乡居民消费差距进而对经济增长产生负的间接影响。

Based on measuring the urban -rural consumption inequality, this paper investigates the asymmetric effects of price volatility on urban - rural consumption inequality by TARCH model, and analyzes the impact of price volatility on economic growth from the perspective of urban - rural consumption inequality. The results show that the price volatility makes the change of the urban - rural consumption inequality get smaller, and it is negative relevant to the urban - rural consumption inequality. If price level changes 1% , then the urban - rural consumption inequality changes 0. 579% conversely. The price volatility not only has negative and direct impact on economic growth, but also has negative and indirect impact on economic growth by influencing the urban - rural consumption inequality.