大中城市周边农地非农化进程驱动机制分析——基于中国130个城市面板数据的检验

On the Driving Forces of Nonagriculturalization of Rural Land around Large and Medium Cities:An Empirical Test Based on Panel Data of 130 Cities in China

本文收集1999-2006年全国130个大中城市的面板数据,对我国农地非农化进程的驱动机制进行了实证研究,发现就全国范围而言,非农人口的增加、产业集聚的形成、政府自身利益的推动、房地产投资的上升是导致大中城市农地非农化过程的主要原因。对大城市来说,由于需求关联循环累积因果关系的影响,产业集聚和房地产投资是农地非农化进程的主要驱动力。对中等城市而言,城市非农人口的增加才是农地非农化过程的最主要因素。因此,政府应根据不同规模城市的差别制定相应的城乡土地发展政策。

In this paper, we make an empirical analysis on the driving mechanism of nonagriculturalization of rural land, using the data of 130 large and medium cities from 1999 to 2006. For the whole country, the results show that the main factors of driving nonagricuhuralization of rural land are increase in non -agricultural population, industrial agglomeration, government benefits from land, and investment in real estate. What is more, for large cities, the nonlinear impact of investment in real estate and industrial agglomeration are most important driving forces due to the circular cumulative causation in demand, while the increase in non - agricultural population is the main factors for the medium cities.