货币政策对物价稳定和经济增长的效应——中国与巴基斯坦的比较研究

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Price Stability and Economic Growth:A Comparative Study between China and Pakistan

本文采用自回归分布滞后模型对中国和巴基斯坦两国货币政策、通货膨胀与经济增长之间的长期关系进行了比较研究,由此得出如下几点结论:第一,两国的经验数据都印证了经济学家们普遍接受的"通货膨胀是一种货币现象"的推论;第二,货币非中性假说在两国的经验数据中均无法被拒绝;第三,在中国存在货币数量论所描述的货币供给与通货膨胀同步增长的预测关系,而这种关系在巴基斯坦却不存在;第四,两国若想实现较高的经济增长都必须在长期内降低通货膨胀率。

By using the Autorcgressive Distributed Lag model, this paper makes a comparative study between China and Pakistan on the long -run relationship among monetary policies, inflation and economic growth. There are some findings. Firstly, our analyses of both countries support a popular argument that inflation is a phenomenon of money; secondly, the money non - neutrality hypothesis can not be rejected in both countries; thirdly, in China there exists synchronized growth relationship between money supply and inflation described by the theorists of money quantity, but it does not hold in Pakistan; fourthly, if both countries are going to get a higher rate of economic growth, then their monetary authorities are supposed to reduce the inflation rate in the long run.