银行信贷、经济增长与通货膨胀压力

Bank Loans,Economic Growth and Inflationary Pressures

本文基于中国宏观经济金融的现实环境,通过构建反映宏观经济变量之间内在联系的向量自回归模型,实证检验了2005年下半年以来我国商业银行信贷投放对经济增长和物价水平的影响。结果表明,在现实宏观经济环境下,银行信贷不仅对经济增长具有正向的促进作用,而且是经济增长的主要影响因素,但这种影响会随时间的变化而逐渐趋弱。短期内,银行信贷对物价水平的影响为负,而且影响较弱。但长期来看,银行信贷对物价的影响将趋正。这表明,金融危机背景下我国商业银行大规模的信贷投放对宏观经济的回暖发挥了重要的促进作用。在我国宏观经济企稳回升的后危机时代,商业银行应合理把握信贷投放节奏,增强信贷支持经济发展的均衡性和可持续性,避免形成通货膨胀预期。

Based on the reality of China＇ s economy and financial systems, this paper examines the effects of loans of China＇ s banks on the economic growth and inflation from 2005 to 2009 with a vector auto - regression model. The results show that not only has bank credit played a positive role in promoting the economic growth, but also it is the main factor of the economic growth, although the effects are becoming weak. In the short terra, the impact of the bank loans on price level is insignificantly negative, but in the long run, the effect becomes positive. The results also imply that under the conditions of the financial crisis, the large - scale loans of China＇s banks have played an important role on promoting the recover3, of China＇ s economy. Therefore, in order to stabilize macroeconomic growth in post - crisis era, banks are supposed to reasonably control the pace of loan supply, keep the balance and sustainability of economic growth, and avoid the formation of inflation expectations.