基于模糊综合评价的铁矿石海外投资风险分析

Risk Analysis on Fuzzy Synthetical Judgment of Iron Investment Oversea

随着我国铁矿石供需缺口的逐年加大,铁矿石海外投资步伐正逐渐加快,对投资风险的分析成为研究的热点问题。根据矿产资源投资理论、风险评估理论,通过专家调查方式确定了影响铁矿石海外投资的分层评价指标体系。采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法相结合,建立了多层次模糊综合评价模型。该模型为投资者科学客观地评价海外投资风险提供了量化依据,有效地降低风险,提高了投资决策水平。最后,以西澳大利亚某铁矿项目为研究对象,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

As China gradually increase the gap between supply and demand of iron,the pace of iron foreign investment is gradually increasing,and the question of the investment risk comes into focus.Based on the theory of mineral resources investment and risk assessment,this paper first ascertained the layer index evaluating system affecting iron investment oversea by experts investigation,established the AHP-Fuzzy model by the method of combing AHP and Fuzzy in this paper.The evaluation model provides a quantitative method to judge investment risk oversea for investors,improves the investment decision-making.Taking an iron project in Western Australia as an example,the experimental results indicate that the grey fuzzy synthetically evaluation method is a more effective method for risk analysis of iron investment oversea.