基于城市扩张的土地储备数量预测研究——以南京市区为例

Forecast of Quantity of Land Reserve Base on Urban Extension——A Case Study of Nanjing City

土地储备数量是土地储备制度运行中的主要问题,受到国内业界的广泛关注。新增土地储备与城市扩张有着密切的联系,通过SLEUTH元胞自动机模型,用1947年,1978年,1990年,2000年和2005年5个年度城市土地利用变化的遥感影像图,模拟南京未来城市扩张,并结合历年来南京新增储备土地占城市扩张总量经验值比例,得出了新增储备量的测算结果,为测算南京市区土地储备量提供了借鉴方案。该方法不仅在量上可得出增量储备的结果,而且通过GIS空间分析的方法,与未来城市规划的土地利用规划图进行空间叠合,可以初步明确储备的增量分布方案,对土地储备工作具有现实的指导意义。

Quantity of land reserve is a core aspect of land reserve system.It has been paid attention to by many experts and researchers in China.New land reserve is a main part of urban extension.The SLEUTH model,a cell-based tempo-spatial process model,was always applied to interpret historical land use change and simulate future change scenarios.This paper selected Nanjing city as the study area,historical land use scenarios for 1947,1978,1990,2000 and 2005 were analyzed to track urban sprawl by TM/ETM images explanation and spatial analysis of ArcGIS software.Through the SLEUTH model city expanding course of Nanjing in 2010,2015 and 2020 were simulated in the paper,and the predicting amount of new land reserve was got by using average proportion of new land reserve area in whole expanding area of Nanjing.By now this method is a new way for prediting quantity of land reserve.Not only can it get the predicting amount of new land reserve in this way,but also it can get spatial distribution project of new land reserve blocks by spatial analysis method of GIS.It will play a great role in work of land reserve.