地理加权回归在区域土地利用格局模拟中的应用——以常州市孟河镇为例

Simulation on Regional Spatial Land Use Patterns Using Geographically Weighted Regression:A Case Study of Menghe Town,Changzhou

以江苏省常州市新北区孟河镇为研究区,在土地利用格局模拟的回归建模中考虑驱动因子对土地利用格局影响的空间不稳定性,实现基于地理加权的回归分析模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法(OLS)的Logistic回归模型进行比较。研究结果表明,运用地理加权回归(GWR)的建模方法,不但可以获得更好的拟合优度和更高的拟合准确率,而且可以获得各驱动因子对土地利用格局影响的空间分异特征。同时,研究结果也可以为孟河镇及其类似地区的土地利用规划决策提供科学依据。

In this paper,Menghe Town in Changzhou City,Jiangsu Province was selected as a case to build a Geographically Weighted Regression analysis model for land use patterns simulation,which considers the spatial non-stationary of the impact on the land use patterns change of the driving factors.The simulation result was compared with OLS Logistic regression model.It is indicated that Geographically Weighted Regression model is not only able to improve simulation accuracy of regional land-use patterns,but also able to obtain spatial differentiation of the impact of the driving factors on land use patterns.Meanwhile,this study can also support the government decisions on land use management for Menghe Town and similar areas.